July 23, 2024 Ukraine and the World – Against russia’s Aggression. Sanctions in Action

The Patriot air defense system from Germany has arrived in Ukraine.

“So the two main tasks for today are more air defense and more generating capacity”, said EU chief diplomat Josep Borrell regarding Ukrainian issues at a meeting of Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the EU.

Commander of the US Air Force in Europe, General James Hekker has said that the arrival of F-16 fighter jets in Ukraine will be the first stage of a longer process of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ transition to Western tactics and equipment.

Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic Jan Lipavský has said that thanks to the Czech Initiative 100,000 ammunition will be delivered to Ukraine during July-August. At the same time, the Czech Republic is looking for money to purchase shells for Ukraine in 2025.

Minister of Foreign Affairs of the FRG Annalena Baerbock has said that Europe is aware of the danger from russia, so it will continue to strengthen Ukraine's defense capabilities and will find ways to prevent weakening of these efforts if any of the EU countries try to do so.

Minister of Foreign Affairs of Latvia Baiba Braže has said that it is necessary to remove the restrictions for Ukraine regarding strikes by Western weapons deep into the territory of the rf.

“Undoubtedly, we all are for peace – both in the Middle East and in Ukraine. It is necessary to work on such a peace, so that it is fair, so that this peace is not a victory for those who believe in the “right of the strong”... We, Belgium, will continue to help Ukraine in the long term in the humanitarian, economic, and military dimensions”, said Minister of Foreign Affairs of Belgium Hadja Lahbib.

The European Union has decided to change its status from an associate member to a participant in the Register of Damage Caused by the Aggression of the rf against Ukraine (RD4U).

The Committee of Eurobond owners has agreed on a comprehensive restructuring of Ukraine's external state commercial debt.

In almost a year of operation of the Ukrainian Maritime Corridor, 57.55 million tons of cargo were transshipped.

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The Council of the European Union has extended economic sanctions against the rf over the war in Ukraine for the next six months – until the end of January 2025.

Increasing European sanctions are forcing russians to get rid of their assets in the EU: another company – the manufacturer of building materials “tekhnonikol” – has sold its production facilities in Italy, Lithuania and Estonia. However, due to problems with cross-border payments, it will be difficult for the former owners to receive the money.

Latvia has begun to install anti-tank barriers on the border with the rf.

Monthly monitoring of enterprises by the Central Bank of the rf recorded a further slowdown in business activity in June 2024. While in May the business climate indicator was declining due to deteriorating expectations of entrepreneurs, in June it was due to a sharp deterioration in assessments of the current situation, primarily in certain manufacturing and mining industries.

The index of companies' assessments of the current situation in the rf lost 4.7 points over the month, dropping to 2.6 points, the lowest since January 2024 (after 5.3 points on average in the second quarter and 2.9 points in the first quarter). The index of short-term expectations (for three months) dropped from 14 to 13 points. Assessments of current and expected levels of production and demand decreased the most over the month, while estimates of current costs increased and credit conditions deteriorated.

Assessments of current business conditions in russia have decreased in all industries, most notably in wholesale trade and mining. “Among the most pressing problems of current activity were a shortage of labor and continued difficulties in settling import payments for the supply of raw materials, components and equipment”, the central bank pointed out.

russia's international isolation has led to the fact that head of the russian railways holding company belozerov sent a letter to the russian ministry of transport stating that the surplus of the railway fleet amounted to 220 thousand freight wagons, and by 2030 it will increase to 310 thousand, which exceeds the “maximum permissible technological parameters of the railway transport infrastructure” within the rf. The imbalance in the volume of cargo, the number of freight resources, and the capacity of the infrastructure to accommodate unclaimed wagons has led to a negative trend in key indicators: productivity decreased by 20%, and the sectional speed of freight trains decreased by 10%.

At the same time, siberian coal energy company reports another problem at the railways. According to the company's estimates, 113 thousand standard gondola wagons manufactured in 2004-2009 will be decommissioned in 2024-2030. Given that the capacity of russian plants can produce no more than 40 thousand gondola wagons per year, there may be a shortage of 100 thousand rolling stock for coal transportation by 2033.

After a series of accidents in rthe rf, rostekh ceo chemezov has admitted that starting in 2030, russia will face major problems in civil aviation, including a noticeable withdrawal of foreign aircrafts from russian airlines, as there will be no more opportunities to repair them.

Sales of russian-made agricultural machinery in the first half of the year decreased by 10%, to 107 billion rubles, according to rosspetsmash. In general, sales of all agricultural machinery in russia have fallen by 15-18%, said altynov, chairman of the board of the askhod agricultural machinery dealers association. He emphasized that the market decline accelerated in June, and the general mood of dealers, especially in southern russia, is “depressed.”

Since 2014, the birth rate in russia has been declining every year. In 2023, the number of births was the lowest (1.264 million), which was the lowest since 1999. In the future, according to the medium version of the rosstat demographic forecast, the birth rate in russia will continue to decline and will drop to 1.140 million babies by 2027.

According to the center for macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecasting, on average, the share of one-person households in russia increased from 22% to 32% in 2002- 2020, in moscow – from 27% to 52%, and in st. petersburg – from 24% to 49%.

In Latvia, there are more and more cases of migrants crossing the border from the rb. Poland is already reporting aggressive actions by potential asylum seekers.

Deputy Foreign Minister of Poland Andrzej Szejna has said that Poland has set conditions for not closing the border with the rb. “There are some conditions: the first condition is the cessation of hybrid attacks on the border, the second is the release of political prisoners, especially Poczobut and the Poles, and political prisoners in general, and the third is the extradition of the murderer of a Polish soldier to be properly sentenced in Poland”, said Szejn.

The cost of supplying the rb’s potash to China has halved in six months, according to the latest data from the Chinese customs. In the first six months of the year, China imported $481.55 million worth of potash fertilizers from the rb, less by 51.2% compared to the same period last year.

According to the National Bank of the rb, in June, core inflation in the country accelerated to 4.7% per annum. For comparison, core inflation was 4.5% in May and 4.1% in April.

The level of tax burden in the rb is clearly too high for an economy that needs structural modernization, said rozhkovskaya, associate professor at the state university of economics in the rb. All of rb's competitors in the Eurasian Economic Union market have a lower tax burden.